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Research Article Open access CC BY 4.0

Climate Predictions for Ludhiana District of Indian Punjab under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5

Mehraj U. Din Dar, Rajan Aggarwal, Samanpreet Kaur

International Journal of Environment and Climate Change · pp. 128–141 · Published 8 May 2019

10.9734/ijecc/2019/v9i230102

Abstract

Climate change poses significant threats to global food security and water resources. In a present study, a Global Climate Model HAD GEM2-ES under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 was used for climate prediction study. The study spanned 46 years of baseline (1970-2015) as well as two future periods’ mid-century (MC) (2020-2050) and end century EC (2060-2090). The results showed that the temperature would increase by 1.56°C and rainfall would decrease by 98 mm in MC (2020-2050); and 3.11°C and 90 mm in EC (2060-2090), respectively under RCP 4.5. In RCP 8.5 the increase in temperature and rainfall was 2.75°C and 153 mm, respectively in MC and the corresponding values in EC was 5.46°C and 251 mm, respectively.

GCM climate model representative concentration pathways

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