Export of Maize from India: Performance and Determinants

Abstract

The present study has examined the growth, instability, trade direction, potential and determinants of maize exports from India from the period 1981 to 2016. Compound Annual Growth Rate, Cudda-Della Valle method, Markov Chain analysis, Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and Regression analysis were used in the study. The growth of export quantity and export value in pre WTO has found to be not significant, while unit value had negative growth. In post WTO period, the export quantity, value and unit value grew significantly at the rate of 38.74, 42.12 and 2.43 per cent per annum, respectively. The instability indices for export quantity and its value found to be relatively lesser in post WTO period. The reasons for high instability may be inconsistent domestic production, consumption and international demand. Thus, the export policies should be in line with consistent growth of maize exports with low instability. The Markov analysis reveals that Nepal followed by Bangladesh exhibited a strong preference for maize from India. India is not that efficient in maize exports as RCA index is not of higher value and it is less than 1 in the years 2001 to 2003, 2005 to 2006 and 2015 to 2016. The variables export price and lagged production are found to be significantly affecting the maize exports from India. As expected, export price had negative association and lagged production had positive association with maize exports. The significant increase in domestic production of the maize crop is the major option for improvement of maize export trade.