Mathematical Modeling of Alcoholism Incorporating Media Awareness as an Intervention Strategy

Abstract

Alcohol addiction is a phenomenon that has attracted the attention of numerous researchers and academics in a variety of professions due to its serious repercussion on all spheres of human life. Alcoholism is a common addiction in adults throughout the globe. Hence there is need to target efficient preventative and therapeutic measures.The impact of media awareness and treatment on the drinking behavior of various drinker classes is discussed in several mathematical models. Nevertheless, the impact of the exposed class of alcoholics on light and heavy drinkers in the presence of media awareness, has not been addressed. The model was formulated based on a system of differential equations. To perform stability analysis of the model at each equilibrium point, Jacobian matrix method was employed. By use of MATLAB, numerical simulations on the impact of awareness on alcoholism were performed. Secondary data obtained from NACADA and data from rehabilitation centers in Kenya was used to validate the analytical results of the impact of media awareness on the drinking population. Analysis of the model indicated that the Alcohol Free Equilibrium (AFE) point is locally asymptotically stable whenever R0 < 1 and unstable whenever R0 > 1. The Alcohol Endemic Point (AEP) exists and is locally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1. Further increase in media awareness programs reduces alcohol prevalence in the community. The study concluded that maximum media awareness is an ideal measure in curbing alcohol abuse in the community. The findings of this study will provide useful insight to the government and policy makers in targeting suitable media awareness programs in combating alcoholism.