Localized Wind Parameters for Hydrodynamic and Environmental Carrying Capacity Modeling in Xuan Dai Bay, Vietnam

Abstract

Accurate characterisation of localised wind regimes is fundamental to developing representative atmospheric forcing for coastal hydrodynamic models, particularly in semi-enclosed embayments where local topography modifies regional wind fields. This study analysed 87,672 hourly wind observations collected from 2016 to 2025 to characterise the localised wind regime of Xuan Dai Bay, Vietnam, and evaluated twelve Weibull parameter estimation methods using five statistical performance metrics. The results revealed a distinct monsoon-driven seasonal wind regime dominated by low-to-moderate wind speeds. Beaufort classes 2–3 accounted for 69.3% of all observations, whereas strong winds (>10.8 m s⁻¹) represented less than 0.3% of the dataset. Estimator performance varied considerably among months, while the Empirical Method of Lysen provided the most reliable estimates for the annual dataset. Based on the optimal estimation methods, monthly and annual Weibull shape (k) and scale (c) parameters were established, providing a localised wind dataset suitable for direct implementation as atmospheric forcing in hydrodynamic models. These parameters strengthen the scientific basis for simulating water exchange, material transport, eutrophication dynamics, and environmental carrying capacity under local wind conditions. Overall, the findings demonstrate that localised wind characterisation is an important prerequisite for physically realistic hydrodynamic modelling and for supporting ecosystem-based management in semi-enclosed coastal embayments.