Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change Detection of East & South Eastern Coastal Plain of Odisha from 1990-2018 and its Impact over Land Surface Temperature (LST)

Abstract

The study analyses land use/land cover (LULC) changes and their climatic impacts in Odisha’s East & South Eastern Coastal Plain from 1990 to 2018 using Landsat 5 and 8 imageries. The research identified significant transformations by applying a supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) method with five classes (Forest, Water Bodies, Settlement, Barren Land, Agriculture). Forest cover declined by 228.32 km² (4,714.45 to 4,486.18 km²), while settlements expanded by 463.15 km² (1,233.46 to 1,696.65 km²). Water bodies and barren land decreased marginally, and agricultural areas were reduced by 65.05 km². Classification accuracy remained robust, with Kappa coefficients of 0.87 (1990) and 0.81 (2018), supported by error matrix accuracies of 84% and 80%, respectively. Land Surface Temperature (LST) analysis via the NDVI threshold method revealed stark warming trends. Low-temperature zones (<25°C) collapsed from 80.61% of the area in 1990 to near elimination by 2018, while medium-temperature zones (25–35°C) surged from 11.38% to 88.54%. High- temperature zones (>35°C), virtually absent in 1990, covered 11.46% of the region by 2018, concentrated around settlements. This spatial pattern highlights urban heat island (UHI) effects, as adjacent areas with similar land cover exhibited lower temperatures, implicating settlement expansion as a primary driver of localized warming. The findings underscore the environmental trade-offs of urbanization, with settlement growth correlating strongly with LST increases and UHI formation. The study demonstrates the utility of remote sensing in tracking LULC dynamics and their climatic consequences, providing critical insights for sustainable land-use planning and climate resilience strategies in rapidly developing coastal regions.