Growth Status and ARIMA Model Forecast of Area, Production of Wheat Crop in India

Abstract

This research is a study of growth status and forecasting area, production of wheat India. Data for the period of 1949-50 to 2017- 18 were analyzed by time series methods. 1949-50 to 2014-15 was used for the model building and forecasting. The data of 2015-16 to 2017-18 was used for validation of the model. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The performance of model was validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE). For forecasting area, production ARIMA (0, 1, 1) and (0, 1, 1) model respectively were used to forecast few leading years. The results also show area forecast for the year 2021 to be about 28276.63 thousand hectares with lower and 34138.09 thousand hectares upper limit respectively, production forecast to be about 94087.32 thousand tonnes with lower limit and 114388.9 thousand tonnes of upper limit respectively. The growth pattern was examined by fitting an exponential function, linear function. The result showed that the linear growth rate compound growth rate is a positive significant trend for area, production. Production shows double of area in the case of compound growth function for the study periods.