Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on Jiangsu’s Foreign Trade

Abstract

The acceleration of globalization makes the whole world economy full of uncertainty Development has strongly promoted the growth of global trade, on the other hand, the financial crisis of globalization will have a more profound impact on every economy, thus disrupting the balance of the global economy. GARCH model is used to calculate the volatility of exchange rate, and the empirical part analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the export trade of Jiangsu Province. A total of 70 periods of monthly data from 2018 to 2023 are used, including two periods of exchange rate reform and epidemic that have a great impact on RMB exchange rate fluctuations. The empirical results show that, the change of exchange rate has a significant impact on the import and export trade volume of Jiangsu Province, and the exchange rate fluctuation has a significant negative impact on the export trade scale of Jiangsu province, which is greater than the import; Finally, for the foreign trade industry of Jiangsu province how to deal with the volatility of RMB exchange rate, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of government and enterprises respectively.