Inflation Dynamics in Nigeria

Abstract

Inflation remains a central issue to policy makers and analysts. High inflation induces uncertainty, adversely affects financial sector development and it is the goal of monetary authorities to achieve price stability in consonance with the general consensus that price stability aids growth of the economy. Despite the goal of single-digit inflation rate by monetary authority (CBN), the Nigerian economy is still practically characterized by high cost of living, increased variability of relative prices of goods and services; therefore the reliability of the monetary aggregates as the main signal for the conduct of monetary policy for control of inflation has become increasingly questionable. Against this backdrop, this research examined the determinants of dynamics of inflation in Nigeria over a period of 36 years (1982-2016); using New Keynesian Philips Curve theoretical framework, Ordinary Least Square estimation techniques (OLS), ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometric techniques to ascertain if inflation is only a monetary phenomenon in Nigeria having inflation as dependent variable and exchange rate (Ex), interest rate (Ir), Unemployment (U), Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) as independent variable. The result of the estimation shows that inflation is not only a monetary phenomenon by the statistical significance of EX and RGDP at short and long-run, U and IR at long-run. Therefore, it was thus recommended that exchange rate and inflation targeting monetary policy framework that will revalue the naira should be implemented to reduce inflation while expansionary fiscal policy that will increase RGDP is also recommended for reduction of inflation.