Impact of Climate Variability on Hydroelectric Power Generation: The Case of the Buyo Dam, Western Côte d’Ivoire

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the historical trends and futures projections of water availability for hydroelectric production at the Buyo dam in Côte d’Ivoire. It relies on the combined use of climatic data (precipitation, temperature), hydrological data (streamflow), and operational data (useful water depth, turbine flows), collected from SODEXAM, the Directorate of Hydrology, and the dam management team. The useful water depth was calculated to assess the actual volume of water available for power generation, and a hydrological vigilance index (Leff) was developed to monitor temporal trends in water scarcity risk. Results show notable interannual variability in water availability, particularly influenced by El Niño events, which have historically led to severe rainfall deficits. Using Leff index quintiles, the study identified specific periods of hydric alert and crisis that pose potential risks to energy production. A significant vulnerability is observed from March to August during dry years. Climate projections for 2040 and 2060, based on multi-model averages (NCC, ICHEC and IPSL) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggest that droughts will become more frequent and intense, which could reduce the availability of water suitable for use in turbines. These findings emphasise the importance of proactive and adaptive water management strategies to ensure the continued reliability of hydroelectric production in the face of increasing climate uncertainty. The vigilance index (Leff) is a valuable tool for providing early warnings and supporting decision-making. Strengthening monitoring systems and integrating climate scenarios into reservoir operation plans is essential for ensuring national energy security.