Rainfall Analysis at District Level for Crop Planning in North Karnataka: A Case Study of Dharwad District

Abstract

North Karnataka comprises thirteen districts that possess different rainfall patterns, soil types and cropping systems. The dynamic nature of climate necessitates assessment of climate variability and local level long range forecasts for adoption of suitable cropping systems in tropical regions. Long period data of rainfall from 1951 to 2017 (67 years) over the thirteen districts were subjected to serial correlation techniques to identify important lag years with significant serial correlation coefficient for annual rainfall, and for seasonal and monthly rainfall for Dharwad district as a pilot study. Significant serial correlation coefficient were identified in these series to develop auto-regression models. These models assessed through hindcast indicated that, except the adjacently located districts of Bagalkot, Kalaburgi and Yadgir, significant association existed between the other districts indicating the possibility of ahead of season forecast of rainfall for these districts. Significant association was also noticed between actual and hindcast values of seasonal and monthly rainfall in Dharwad district and therefore, have potential for selection of crops and cropping systems for the Dharwad district in advance. Thus, the results can be well adopted for crop planning well in advance at district level for better results and adoption. The seasonal and monthly forecast models as indicated for Dharwad district can be of immense help to advise the cropping systems/patterns for the ensuing the Kharif and the Rabi crops, particularly Sorghum variety CSH-1, M35-1 and wilt resistant Chickpeas variety BRG-5 were recommended for late sown conditions and low rainfall region in October for Dharwad district.