Heuristics for the Intelligent Prediction of Population Growth

Abstract

Population growth is a phenomenon that is inevitable in a life course and the components of population growth are fertility, mortality and migration. Because of the impact population growth exact upon the socio- economic nature of a country, it will be wise to know the future size and distribution of it so that adequate measures can be made to forestall possible problems. There are different population models and algorithms implemented to project population growth, ranging from statistical to machine learning models; these model techniques were very suitable in their time, such as the Malthusian theory, which, first and foremost, gives deeper consideration to the exponential growth model, while many implemented classification and linear regression algorithm. Linear regression machine learning algorithms were considered the most effective algorithm for population growth projection. This study tends to develop a machine learning model that is data-driven mathematically, capable of implementing the data-independent prediction model equation that was used to predict the impact of the Non-pharmaceuticals approach and pharmaceuticals approach (NPA and PA) in mitigating the spread of the  Covid-19 virus, and both models were re-modified to project Nigeria population growth. The data-independent prediction model (DIPM) utilized onset data from the NPA and PA interventions to predict the probability of mitigating the spread of the virus for a specific period. The DIPM has the properties of arithmetic and exponential methods. The fusion of these two properties with the aid of machine learning model has further reveal the data-independent prediction model as a conceptualization technique to reflect how data are processed in an algorithm setting in a concrete world, with the support of the Java array list algorithm, what all the statistical models and supervised machines learning model used in the past studies could not achieve, have been accomplished succinctly. The data independent prediction model is a robust technique for both projection and forecasting future population growth as well as proffer answers to historical issues in mathematical modeling of population expansion.