Growth, Instability and Directions of Cotton Exports in India during 2014-15 to 2023-24: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

Cotton is a major commercial crop in India and contributes to agricultural income, industrial employment and foreign-exchange earnings. This study examines India’s cotton export performance from 2014–15 to 2023–24. Its objectives were to analyse growth and instability in area, production and productivity; evaluate the export profile; and model the direction of trade. Secondary data were obtained from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, the Cotton Advisory Board and the Cotton Association of India. The analytical methods included the compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index and a first-order Markov chain model. The domestic production series showed a non-significant annual increase in area (0.69%), a non-significant decline in production (−1.51%) and a significant decline in yield (−2.18%). Export quantity recorded negative overall growth (−9.30%), whereas export value in rupee terms increased marginally (1.85%). China and Bangladesh accounted for the largest export shares. The Markov chain analysis indicated that Bangladesh had the highest retention probability among the named country markets (0.6500), followed by Hong Kong and Turkey (0.5500 each) and Vietnam (0.5000). The findings indicate that policy attention should focus on productivity constraints, export competitiveness and destination diversification.