Prediction of Citrus Wax Scale, Ceroplastes floridensis Comstock (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Populations Using the Two IPCC's SRES Scenarios (A2 and B2) for 2050 and 2100 Years

Abstract

The present work deals with the prediction of the populations of citrus wax scale, Ceroplastes floridensisduring 2050 and 2100 years compared with the pest populations of 2012 as well as the different effect of temperature on populations of 2000 and 2012 years in Sharkia governorate. The results indicated the existent of a relationship between mean temperature and nymph numbers of C. floridensis with a good fit to the data and a co-efficient of determination of R2= 0.908 and 0.957 for 2000 and 2012 years, respectively. Also, the existent of a relationship between mean temperature and adult numbers with a good fit to the data and the co-efficient of determination of R2=0.934 and 0.956 for 2000 and 2012 years, respectively. The nymph numbers for C. floridensis under two different climate change Scenario (A2 and B2) were also estimated. The results indicated that the increased in nymph numbers in 2012s & 2050s and 2012s & 2100s under A2, with average yearly increased, were 20.4% and 60.0%, respectively. While under B2 were 23.1% and 42.6%, respectively. Estimated adult numbers for C. floridensis under the two different climate change Scenario (A2 and B2). The results showed that the increased between nymph numbers in 2012s & 2050s and 2012s & 2100s under A2 with average yearly increased were 32.6 % and 103.0%, respectively. While under B2 were 37.9% and 72.5%, respectively. It is concluded that the increased temperatures during 2050 and 2100 will increased the population actively of C. floridensis in Egypt.