Geospatial Analysis of the Effect of Urbanization on Land Surface Temperature of Akure Metropolitan Area in Ondo State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study employed geospatial techniques to analyze the spatiotemporal impact of urbanization on Land Surface Temperature (LST) in the Akure Metropolitan Area, Nigeria, from 1994 to 2024. Multi-temporal satellite imagery from Landsat (4TM, 7ETM+, 8OLI) and Sentinel-2 were processed to derive land use/land cover (LULC) maps and LST distributions for four epochs (1994, 2004, 2014, 2024). A supervised classification algorithm was used to categorize LULC into built-up, vegetation, forest, cropland, bare surface and water bodies. LST was retrieved from thermal infrared bands using a standardized radiative transfer equation and Using coefficients of reflectance rescaling provided in the metadata. The results revealed a dramatic transformation of the landscape, characterized by a rapid expansion of built-up areas from 6.97% (69.12 km²) in 1994 to 24.39% (241.77 km²) in 2024, alongside a severe decline in vegetation cover from over 86% to less than 58%. Concurrently, the maximum LST exhibited a significant increasing trend, rising from 24°C in 1994 to 34°C in 2024. Statistical analysis confirmed a strong positive correlation between the increase in impervious surfaces (built-up and bare land) and the rise in LST, while a strong negative correlation was observed between vegetation loss and temperature increase. The study conclusively establishes the intensification of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Akure, directly driven by unplanned urbanization and loss of natural land cover. The findings underscore the critical need for integrated urban planning, the promotion of green infrastructure, and strict land use policies to mitigate thermal discomfort and enhance climate resilience in the metropolitan area.