Future Trends in Cassava Production: Indicators and its Implications for Food Supply in Nigeria

Abstract

The growing demand for cassava and its products has continued to stretch the supply of cassava globally. Nigeria is a leading producer of cassava in the world yet, there are concerns that if appropriate policy strategies are not adopted to increase production, the current fragile situation of food insecurity in Nigeria may be worsened. Besides the increasing number of gigantic cassava-based industries spring up in Nigeria, the rapidly growing population of consumers is another factor that may further disrupt the relatively stable cassava market in Nigeria in the future. Therefore, “ceteris paribus”, the study determined the appropriate quantitative models to forecast the trends in cassava production indictors in Nigeria. Using the historical series (1961 – 2018), 12-year period (2019 -2030) forecasts were made for each of the production indicators as follows: 106 million tonnes (production output), 7.7 tonnes/ha (yield) and 9.6 million hectares (cropped area) in 2030. The study extrapolated the expected food supply from the expected production output in the forecast period using the 2014 FAO estimates of food supply per caput. Thus, in 2030, cassava food supply per caput was found to decline from 267 Kcal/capita/day in 2014 to 239 Kcal/capita/day. The study concludes that despite keeping the future demand of the growing cassava-based industries constant, cassava production is expected to continually increase but future food supply per caput would decline. However, the growing cassava-based industries globally is expected to hugely influence the future cassava market dynamics.