Application of Percent of Normal Precipitation Method for Meteorological Drought Intensity Assessment and Its Impact on Agricultural Production

Abstract

Aim: To study the application of percent of normal precipitation method for meteorological drought intensity assessment and its impact on agricultural production. Place and Duration: The study was conducted in Yola South Local Government Area (LGA), of Adamawa Sate Nigeria during the year 2020. Methodology: Drought intensity was assessed using Percent of Normal Precipitation method (PNP) using forty (40) years of rainfall data (1987-2017) obtained from Upper Benue Development Authority, Yola (UBRBDA). In addition, data on the negative impact of drought intensity on agricultural production were obtained from the well defined and structured questionnaires administered randomly to the fifty (50) selected farmers in the area where simple descriptive statistic was used in the analysis of the sourced data. Results: It revealed that out of the forty years under study, the extremely wet condition was reoccurred in six years (15%), very wet season (5%), while moderately wet conditions had experienced in 14 years (35%) and normal condition was identified in 16 years (40%) respectively.  Under dry conditions it was found that only moderately dry condition had ever occurred in 2 years (5%) only. For the drought impact on agricultural production most farmers (55 %) perceived that drought does not happen every year in the area. However, it occurs with seasonal variability mostly in the months July-August which last for 1-2 weeks as agreed by (55%) of the farmers. Majority of the farmers (60 %) in the area revealed that the level of the drought impact on agricultural production was high affecting crop yield (18%), drying of dams, reservoirs and lakes and outbreak of crops’ pest and diseases (12 %). In contrast other effects include soil degradation, loss of profit and capital, loss of employment opportunities, dead of livestock and starvation and drop in the water table and drying of soils with (6%) each of the respondents respectively. Similarly,  the use of early matured crops (30%), Early planting (18%), Delay planting (16 %) and water harvesting ( 12 %) were adopted as mitigation strategies towards curtailing the negative impact of drought impact on their agricultural production in the area. Conclusion: The application of PNP method towards the assessment of drought intensity revealed important information of drought intensity which can serve as a valuable knowledge towards effective drought monitoring and proper agronomic mitigation strategies on its negative impact on agriculture in the area for optimum and profitable production. The application of another drought index is imperatively recommended for comparision and validation towards finding reliable information on drought in the area.