Flood Hazard Zonation and Village Vulnerability Analysis in the Shevisheh Basin, Western Iran

Abstract

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural hazards, causing significant damage to settlements, infrastructure, and natural resources every year. Accurate identification of flood-prone areas and assessment of the vulnerability of human settlements are essential steps in risk management and preventive planning. The Shooysheh watershed in western Iran, due to its geomorphological characteristics, high precipitation, and physiographic conditions, exhibits a considerable potential for flood occurrence. In this study, to delineate flood-susceptible zones and evaluate the vulnerability of villages within the basin, a set of influential environmental and hydrological parameters—including annual average precipitation, distance from rivers, elevation, slope, vegetation density, and lithology—were selected, standardized, and incorporated into the modeling process. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied for weighting the criteria, and the WLC and OWA multi-criteria decision-making methods were employed to integrate the layers. The results revealed that the southern parts of the watershed, characterized by low elevations, gentle slopes, and proximity to river channels, possess the highest flood potential. According to the OWA model, approximately 24% (about 473 km²) of the basin, and based on the WLC model, about 23.9% (470 km²) fall within the high and very high flood-susceptibility zones. Furthermore, the analysis of village distribution showed that—under the OWA model—87 villages (70.7%) and—under the WLC model—81 villages (65.9%) lie within the high and very high vulnerability classes. These findings highlight the urgent need for managerial and preventive measures to mitigate flood risk in the rural areas of the Shooysheh watershed. The outcomes of this research provide a practical tool for urban planning, disaster management, and sustainable development within the region.