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Research Article Open access CC BY 4.0

Predictor Selection Associated With Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation over Zambia

Libanda Brigadier, David Allan, Banda Noel, Wang Luo, Ngonga Chilekana, Linda Nyasa

Asian Journal of Physical and Chemical Sciences · pp. 1–9 · Published 24 Feb 2017

10.9734/AJOPACS/2016/31545

Abstract

A non-generative, analog methodology was used to downscale daily precipitation from CMIP5-CNRM-CM5 developed by Météo-France/CNRS and CMIP5-CANESM2 of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. The downscaling reduces the 2° resolution GCM output to point station data. Sensitivity experiments for four different predictor variables (PVs) were carried out to examine the most significant PVs for the case of Zambia. ERA-Interim reanalyses was used for calibration (75%) and validation (25%) for the period 1981 – 2012. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was used to compute the predictive power of CNRM-CM5 and CANESM2 by comparing the difference between their simulation results against ERA-Interim. Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was also used to assess the linear relationship between the datasets. Downscaled and observed data were compared and analysed. Results indicate that both CNRM-CM5 and CANESM2 perform well in perfect prognosis over the period 1970 – 2000 averaged over longitude 19°E - 37°E and latitude 22°S - 4°S. Pearson correlation results show that the combination PV2: T850, Q850, and U850 perform well at 95% confidence level. These results fill the knowledge gap of the behaviour of different variables for climate change projections and impact assessment studies in Zambia. Specifically, this study suggests a starting point in the selection of predictor variables for climate change studies in Zambia.  

Predictor selection statistical downscaling precipitation Zambia

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