Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change on Crop Production in Northern Bangladesh

Abstract

This study assessed farmers’ vulnerability to climatic variability, examined their perceptions of seasonal climatic changes affecting crop production, and determined the influence of selected farmer characteristics on those perceptions in northern Bangladesh. Data were collected from 240 farmers selected from a population of 960 in eight villages of Mithapukur Upazila, Rangpur District. A multistage random sampling procedure was applied, and information was collected through face-to-face interviews using a pre-tested interview schedule from 15 July to 15 December 2022. Farmers’ vulnerability was assessed using four climate-related hazards experienced during the previous 10 years, namely flash floods, drought, cold waves, and disease and pest outbreaks. Perception of climate change was measured by summing responses to 27 climatic components across the rainy, winter, and summer seasons using a two-point scale. The findings show that drought was the most frequently experienced climatic hazard (97.08%), followed by flash floods (84.16%), disease and pest outbreaks (72.50%), and cold waves (64.17%). Reduced income and reduced crop yield were the major reported losses. Most respondents (65.83%) were in the medium vulnerability category. Farmers also mostly perceived medium level of climatic change during the rainy (75.83%), winter (77.08%), and summer (78.75%) seasons, while 65.00% reported an overall medium level of perception. Correlation analysis showed that 12 of the 15 selected characteristics were significantly associated with farmers’ perceptions. Multiple regression analysis explained 53.2% of the variation, while stepwise regression identified education, age, and risk orientation as the key predictors, jointly explaining 40.0% of the variation. The study indicates that farmers’ perceptions are shaped mainly by direct exposure to climatic hazards and by human capital factors, particularly education.