The Influence of a Political Event on Property Sector Stocks in Indonesia Stock Exchange

Abstract

This study examines the capital market reaction from the declaration of the presidential and vice presidential candidates for the 2018 presidential election, which will be marked by the presence or absence of abnormal returns. The samples used are stocks that are incorporated into the property sector. As a study of events, this research observes the reaction before, during, and after the event within the observation period. The periods of research used were H-3 (before the event), H0 (current events), and H + 3 (after the event). The data are obtained from www.idx.co.id. The data used in this research is secondary data, such as the stock closing price, which has been adjusted (the closing price is adjusted), and the closing price of IDX. The data are in the form of daily stock prices. These data are then analyzed using the analytical method of the paired sample t-test. The results showed that Abnormal Return had no significance. This means that there is no market reaction when there is an excess of actual return compared to a normal return in the stock exchange of the property. The significance level has a negative condition exactly three days before the declaration of presidential and vice-presidential candidates, which is dated August 6th, 2018. However, in the following days, the 7th and 8th of August 2018, it has experienced an insignificant level of positive. This means that the market perceived appropriately before the presidential and vice-presidential candidates were set. In addition, the statistics test result of the Average Trading Volume Activity (TVA) proved that there was a significant difference between the period before and after the official registration of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the General Election Commission (KPU). The results showed that there were significant differences due to the value of sig. greater than 0.05 or 0.006 ≥ 0.05.