Effects of Temperature on Global Trends in Epidemiology of COVID-19
A. S. M. Sarwar, Khandaker Sabit Bin Razzak, Anika Bushra, Mohammad Nabil Hossain, Md. Moshiur Rahman, Shirin Tarafder, Ashfa Mahjuba, Sabrina Rahman, Md. Evangel Islam Anik, Tah-Ima-Tabassum .
Asian Journal of Research in Infectious Diseases · pp. 1–15 · Published 28 Aug 2020
10.9734/ajrid/2020/v5i130156Abstract
Identifying the effects of temperature on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak is essential for modelling studies and guiding intervention strategies all over the world. The aim of the study is to understand the effect of temperature on global epidemic trends, geographic distribution, and transmission patterns of COVID-19. Data on COVID-19 and temperature from 1st February 2020 to 30th April 2020 were included. The epidemic trends we analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics; the growth of affected countries was by descriptive analysis; and the global distribution and transmission trend by inferential statistics. Scattered plot diagram matrix was performed for Europe and Africa data. Based on 90 days COVID-19 affected and death data survival analysis was performed for South East Asian region. Lowest three months average temperature was in Europe (41.060F) from February 2020 to April 2020 (34.60F, 41.10F and 47.50F) shows the highest average confirmed case. Highest three months avg. temperature was Africa (74.40F) February 2020 to April 2020 (73.40F, 74.70F and 75.30F) shows the lowest avg. confirmed case and avg. death. In Europe, average temperatures with transmission positively correlated on the other hand in Africa average with transmission were negatively correlated. The results of the study suggested that, temperature had positive or negative effects on the geographical trend of COVID-19 confirmed cases, death cases, recovered case or transmission. It is being suggested that geographical regions with a lower temperature need to adopt the stricter control measures and WHO is a guideline to prevent rapid spread of COVID-19.
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