Semi Empirical Model of Global Warming Including Cosmic Forces, Greenhouse Gases, and Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract

In this paper, the author describes a semi empirical climate model (SECM) including the major forces which have impacts on the global warming namely Greenhouse Gases (GHG), the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), the Astronomical Harmonic Resonances (AHR), and the Volcanic Eruptions (VE). The effects of GHGs have been calculated based on the spectral analysis methods. The GHG effects cannot alone explain the temperature changes starting from the Little Ice Age (LIA). The known TSI variations have a major role in explaining the warming before 1880. There are two warming periods since 1930 and the cycling AHR effects can explain these periods of 60 year intervals. The warming mechanisms of TSI and AHR include the cloudiness changes and these quantitative effects are based on empirical temperature changes. The AHR effects depend on the TSI, because their impact mechanisms are proposed to happen through cloudiness changes and TSI amplification mechanism happen in the same way. Two major volcanic eruptions, which can be detected in the global temperature data, are included. The author has reconstructed the global temperature data from 1630 to 2015 utilizing the published temperature estimates for the period 1600 – 1880, and for the period 1880 – 2015 he has used the two measurement based data sets of the 1970s together with two present data sets. The SECM explains the temperature changes from 1630 to 2015 with the standard error of 0.09°C, and the coefficient of determination r2 being 0.90. The temperature increase according to SCEM from 1880 to 2015 is 0.76°C distributed between the Sun 0.35°C, the GHGs 0.28°C (CO2 0.22°C), and the AHR 0.13°C. The AHR effects can explain the temperature pause of the 2000s. The scenarios of four different TSI trends from 2015 to 2100 show that the temperature decreases even if the TSI would remain at the present level.