Crude Oil Price and Nigeria's Economy: An Empirical Test of the Resource Curse, 2010–2023

Abstract

Background and Aims: Nigeria’s substantial dependence on crude petroleum for export earnings and public revenue makes its economy particularly exposed to movements in global oil prices. This study examined whether Brent crude oil price is significantly associated with Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) after accounting for exchange-rate and inflation dynamics, and to assess whether the evidence is consistent with a resource-curse interpretation. Study Design: An ex postfacto annual time-series design was used. Place and Duration of Study: Nigeria; national annual data for 2010–2023, analysed in 2026. Methodology: Fourteen annual observations were assembled from the Federal Reserve Economic Data repository and the Central Bank of Nigeria. An ordinary least squares regression was estimated on log-transformed GDP and Brent crude oil price, with the exchange rate and inflation rate as controls. A real-GDP specification was estimated as a robustness check. Results: The primary model was statistically significant, F(3, 10) = 30.35, p < .001, R² = .90. Brent crude oil price was not a significant predictor of GDP (B = −0.02, p = .899), whereas the exchange rate was significant (p < .001). Brent price also remained non-significant in the real-GDP robustness model (p = .463). Conclusion: The short annual sample provides no evidence of a significant contemporaneous association between Brent crude oil price and GDP after the controls were included. The pattern is consistent with, but does not establish, an exchange-rate-mediated resource-curse mechanism.