Climate Change Impacts on Community Livelihoods and Vegetation Dynamics in the Central Himalaya, India

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on local communities and alpine vegetation across Himalayan elevation gradients in the high-altitude alpine meadows of the Byans Valley, Central Himalaya. The analysis integrates household surveys (n = 175) with a 21-year Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series (2004–2024). Community perceptions indicate widespread climatic changes, including rising temperatures (91%), altered seasonal timing (89%), reduced snowfall (91%), shorter winters (82%), and notable shifts in agriculture, horticulture, and species phenology. Reported ecological and livelihood impacts include early flowering, reduced productivity of medicinal plants, increased crop infestations, and heightened wildlife–human interactions. NDVI trends reveal consistently high vegetation values at lower elevations (maximum 0.7 in 2024), moderate but fluctuating peaks at mid elevations, and gradual greening at higher elevations, with peak values reaching 0.5 during 2022–2023. The occurrence of earlier NDVI peaks suggests advancing phenological responses linked to warmer spring temperatures and earlier snowmelt. Overall, the combined evidence from community perceptions and remote sensing highlights significant climate-driven alterations in seasonal cycles, agro-pastoral practices, and alpine vegetation productivity across elevation gradients.