Modelling Nigeria Naria Exchange Rate against Some Selected Country’s Currencies Volatility: Application of GARCH Model

Abstract

This paper examines the exchange rate volatility with GARCH-type model of the daily exchange rate return series from January 2012 – August 2016 for Naira/Chinese Yuan, Naira/India Rupees, Naira/Spain Euro, Naira/UK Pounds and Naira/US Dollar returns. The studies compare estimates of variants of GARCH (1, 1), EGARCH (1, 1), TGARCH (1,1) and GJR-GARCH (1,1) models. The result from all models indict presence of volatility in the five currencies and equally indicate that most of the asymmetric models rejected the existence of a leverage effect except for models with volatility break. For GARCH (1, 1), GJR-GARCH (1, 1,) EGARCH (1,1) and TGARCH (1, 1), it was observed that India have the best exchange rate with the highest log-likelihood (Log L) and the lowest AIC and BIC followed by USA, China, Spain and United Kingdom respectively. The four models was later compared for the exchange rates of the five countries under consideration i.e. China, India, Spain, UK and USA  to select the best fitted model for each country and it was discovered that GJR-GARCH (1,1) is the best fitted model for all the countries followed by GARCH (1,1), TGARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) in that order.