Assessment of Wheat Yield Gaps and Potential for Yield Enhancement in Haryana, India

Abstract

This study analyses wheat yield disparities in Haryana, India, using statistical and geographical methods to assess 15 years of district-level data from 2006 to 2020. In many areas, there is considerable underutilization of productivity potential, as demonstrated by the yield gap—defined as the difference between the observed average yield and the achievable yield (Olympic mean). Yield gaps exceeding 750 kg/ha were observed in districts such as Panchkula, Karnal, and Yamunanagar, indicating significant opportunities for agronomic improvement. In contrast, districts like Charkhi Dadri and Bhiwani exhibited performance levels approaching saturation. A Weather Risk Index was developed to address climatic variability, based on the standard deviation of de-trended yield. High-gap zones were visualized through spatial analysis using ArcMap 10.8, which enabled the classification of districts based on risk exposure and yield potential. The findings underscore the importance of district-specific strategies, suggesting that high-gap, low-risk regions require targeted inputs to enhance yield, while high-risk areas need interventions to strengthen resilience. This research presents a scalable model for strategic agricultural planning that enhances food security, reduces vulnerability, and boosts productivity.