Assessing the Operational Capacity of Airports in Extreme Weather Scenarios in the Niger Delta Region

Abstract

The aviation sector operations and efficiency are weather-elements sensitive and adverse weather such as thunderstorm is one hazard known globally for its significant effect on the transportation sector particularly the aviation sub-sector. Thus, this study examined the impact of thunderstorm on flight operations in selected airports of the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria with the view to mitigate effects of thunderstorms on flight operations. The quasi experimental design in the context of the ex-post-facto research design was adopted while both primary and secondary data were used for the study. The primary data were obtained from copies of administered questionnaire, while the secondary data included aviation operations records sourced from the archive of the Nigerian Aerospace Management Agency (NAMA), climate data (particularly thunderstorm, rainfall, temperature, wind speed and wind direction, visibility, cloud types), sourced from the archive of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) for the period 1989-2019. Analyses were done using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multiple linear regressions (MLR). Results showed that mean thunderstorm for the region was 116 day/year but varied spatially at P<0.05 (Fcal-16.586; sig-0.000) and Benin recorded the highest thunder-storm/days/year of 140. Perception of respondents indicated that the manifestation of thunderstorms at the airports accounted for flight cancellation (75%), flight diversion (75%) and flight delays (100%). Recorded information showed that thunderstorm accounted for 14880 flight delays, 1657 diversions and 13558 flights cancellation for the period of inquiry. The MLR revealed an r value 0.6. The coefficient of determination of the model was 36% implying that, 36 % of the aviation operations is explicated by thunderstorm, leaving the other 64% to other weather elements, and poor aviation decision making. Furthermore, the model was significant at P<0.05 (F-4.2; SigF-0.015), this means that flights operations significantly depend on thunderstorm in the area. Respondents (75%) opined that preparedness level to handle thunderstorm effects at the airports is low. Therefore, it is recommended that, modern equipment for weather measurement and forecasting at the airports be acquired while retraining the observers should be prioritized.