Assessing the Competitiveness: Afghanistan’s Fresh Grapes Export Performance in the Global Market

Abstract

This study assesses Afghanistan’s fresh grapes export competitiveness using methods like CAGR for growth, CDVI for instability, and RCA/RSCA for comparative advantage. It also applied the NPC to evaluate price competitiveness, Markov Chain Analysis to track export patterns, and the Bai-Perron test to identify structural breaks, providing a comprehensive analysis of Afghanistan's global market position during 2008 to 2023. Fresh grapes, was one of the important components of Afghanistan’s agricultural exports, grew considerably in both quantity and value, though their export performance was marked by notable instability. The study highlighted that, Afghanistan had moderate competitiveness in the world market, aided by favorable climatic conditions. However, a low NPC suggested limited trade protection, as domestic prices for Afghan grapes remained below international prices. Comparative analyses showed that, while Chile’s export volumes were declined and value growth held steady due to rising prices. Peru achieved robust export growth despite moderate instability. Italy focused on high quality grapes production primarily for domestic consumption, ensuing with low instability. Pakistan emerged as the most consistent market for Afghan fresh grapes, showed a steady demand that supported Afghanistan’s competitive position in regional trade. Structural breaks in 2015 and 2019 found export volume shifts, with an initial increase from better market access, followed by a decline due to COVID-19. Since 2015, export values declined due to market constraints and economic factors, but recovered strongly with favorable weather and government policy adjustments.