Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability for Soybean-based Cropping Systems: Evidence from Bhopal and Ujjain Districts of Madhya Pradesh, India

Abstract

Background and Aims: Soybean, being an important crop of the Madhya Pradesh state, is continuously facing a threat due to climate change. Thus, this study was done to assess the season-wise vulnerability of soybean-based cropping systems to climate change in Madhya Pradesh, India’ Methodology and Study Area: The study utilised an index-based approach grounded in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework. Two dominant cropping systems—Soybean–Wheat (Bhopal district) and Soybean–Wheat/Chickpea (Ujjain district)—were selected based on the proportion of soybean area under cultivation. The methodology of vulnerability was conceptualised as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, and a composite vulnerability index was constructed using normalised indicators and statistically derived weights. Results: The results indicate that temperature is the major contributor to exposure in both districts, with higher exposure observed during the Rabi season. Sensitivity was primarily driven by availability-related factors such as landholding size, irrigation access, and cropping intensity, while experience and dependency played a relatively minor role. Adaptive capacity was largely influenced by institutional support, scientific knowledge, and income diversification. Comparative analysis revealed that Ujjain exhibited relatively higher exposure, whereas Bhopal demonstrated stronger adaptive capacity. Despite moderate exposure levels, both districts were categorised as less vulnerable. Conclusion: The findings highlight that enhanced adaptive capacity effectively offsets climatic risks, thereby strengthening the resilience of soybean-based cropping systems. The study underscores the importance of improving access to climate-resilient technologies, extension services, and institutional support to further reduce vulnerability and ensure sustainable agricultural development.