Assessing Climate Change Resilience in Central Indian Agriculture: A Regional Indicators-based Approach and Agro-climatic Zone Mapping

Abstract

Climate change has adversely hampered the agricultural economy of India, especially central India. To get insight into the present level of climate change resilience in Central India (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Southern UP) a composite climate change resilience capacity index (CCRCI) was developed for selected 102 districts using 50 climatic, soil, crop, livestock and socio-economic indicators in agriculture. Mann- Kendall non-parametric trend analysis was employed to evaluate long-term climatic trends (kharif 1981- summer 2023) for key climatic indicators like daily average temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and root zone soil wetness. Standard methodologies of index development like normalisation and principal component analysis (PCA) for weight assignment were executed. After developing CCRCI, agro-climatic zone-wise mapping was done for all the selected districts. Results revealed that Maharashtra had the largest number of high climate-resilience districts, followed by Madhya Pradesh with a mix of resilience levels in Chhattisgarh and Southern UP showing significant gaps in climate preparedness. The findings underscore the need for targeted interventions in low-resilience districts, particularly in agro-climatic Zones VII (Eastern Plateau and Hills Region) and IX (Western Plateau and Hills Region), where climate exposure and limited adaptability pose significant risks to agriculture. This mapping highlights the diversity of challenges and opportunities in central India, offering a framework for region-specific climate change resilience planning.