Analyzing the Seasonal Variations and Price Trends in Major Onion Markets of India

Abstract

The study was conducted about to analyse the onion price trend, seasonality and correlation in major markets of larger onion producing states of India with a study period of twenty years for onion crops (2001 to 2020). These data were collected from various portals such as APEDA, Agmarknet, and NHB. The data collected were subjected to statistical analysis using different methods. Twenty years data was used to analyze the seasonal and irregular fluctuations in onion prices, the variability of onion prices in major states in India and to measure trend and estimate rates of change in onion price in major states of India. The co-efficient of quadratic trend (T2) found non-significant in all markets reveals no change in growth pattern of onion price in last two decades, which indicates that farmers were not benefited by rise in price; it is the effect of inflation factors only. On an average the onion prices in major markets of India was increased annually at the rate of 8.50 per cent during last two decades. The seasonality is prevailing throughout all markets of onion in India. The price indices were found more than 100 in the months of August to January and lower during February to July. The magnitude of price volatility was found the highest in Bhopal (88.25%) and the lowest in Mahuva (53.81%) market. Whereas, the magnitude of arrival volatility was found the highest in Mahuva (187.25%) and the lowest in Mumbai (31.97%) market. The monthly (>0.87) and yearly (>0.90) onion prices were found highly correlated among all the markets. As onion price are highly volatile, requires creation of storage capacity to meet specific requirement of humidity and temperature, and the Government should take immediate action to enhance export, when price falls drastically and allow the import, when price increase beyond certain level.