Analysis of Temperature Trends and Frequency of Cold and Heat Waves in Plain and Hill Zones of Uttarakhand, India

Abstract

The study analyzes temperature trends in Uttarakhand’s plain (Pantnagar: 1981–2020) and hill (Ranichauri: 1985–2020) zones using Weathercock software to assess climate suitability for crop growth. These findings are crucial for optimizing cropping patterns, sowing dates, and varietal selection to enhance productivity under changing climatic conditions. Maximum and minimum temperature trends were examined seasonally and annually, revealing a decreasing temperature range in the plains due to declining maximum and increasing minimum temperatures, while the hill zone exhibited an increasing temperature range. This trend may lead to delayed crop maturity and reduced yield in the plains, whereas forced maturity and grain shrinkage in the hills. Seasonal analysis showed declining maximum temperatures in all seasons except Zaid in the plains, while hills experienced increasing trends except in Zaid due to pre-monsoon showers. Frequency analysis indicated more severe heat waves in hills and cold waves in plains. The observed temperature shifts, along with changes in heat unit accumulation, impacts the crop productivity. The range of maximum and minimum temperature for the plain and hill zone is 39-460C & 24-330C and -1 to 80C & -3 to 50C respectively. The frequency of heat and cold waves was also assessed on daily, monthly and annual basis. Optimize sowing dates and select climate-resilient crop varieties to mitigate temperature-induced yield impacts in plains and hills.