Analysis of Agricultural Export Performance and Policy Prospects in India: A Two-Decade Review (2003–2023)

Abstract

This study analyzes India's agricultural export performance and policy prospects over two decades (2003-2023), examining trends, comparative advantage shifts, and changes in agricultural commodity exports. Furthermore, the study discusses the potential for enhancing agricultural exports in the future. As a backbone of the Indian economy, agriculture supports more than 50% of the population and contributes significantly to economic growth. Data for this analysis were collected from various sources, including the Ministry of Commerce's export-import data bank and the World Trade Organization. Compositional changes in export data were analyzed using growth rates. These growth rates were calculated using a semi-log growth model and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The study findings indicate a decline in the global share of agricultural exports from India compared to leading exporting nations. Analyzing specific products, the export shares of cereals, spices, rice, maize, and meat & offals have increased, while wheat & meslin, coffee, tea, fish, vegetables & tubers, and fruits and nuts have experienced a decline in export shares from 2003 to 2013. Rice has maintained a consistent export share from 2014 to 2023, while other commodities have seen varying trends. However, examining the growth rates from 2003 to 2014, there has been significant positive growth in exports of maize, meat & offals, fruits & nuts, spices, cereals, rice, coffee, vegetables & tubers, fish, and tea, with notable variations among commodity groups. Conversely, wheat & meslin experienced negative growth. However, from 2014 to 2023, growth rates have declined for cereals, spices, rice, wheat & meslin, maize, coffee, tea, fish, vegetables & tubers, fruits and nuts, with meat & offals exhibiting a negative growth rate. Based on the findings, the study suggests that the government should promote exports across various sectors through targeted incentives, industry-friendly regulations, and a focus on competitiveness to capitalize on opportunities and drive growth in Indian agricultural exports.