Adapting to Unpredictability: Exploring the Effects of Shifting Weather and Farming Systems

Abstract

The present study explores the effects of fluctuating weather on adoption of climate variability adaptation measures. Unpredictable weather as a result of climate change has affected agriculture production in many parts of the world. Sub-Saharan countries have been more affected due to their location and their low adaptive capacity. Bagamoyo district, Tanzania is one of the areas that have witnessed weather variability thereby affecting the livelihood of the small-scale farmers. There is scant information on how irregular weather patterns affect farmer’s decisions on the choice of climate change adaptation measures. This study therefore explored the perception of farmers on fluctuating rainfall patterns and the factors affecting employment of different available adaptation measures. Household, key informant and official interviews were employed to collect data. Multinomial regression logistic models were used to establish relationships among variables. The results showed that small scale farmers are aware of climate change variability and the associated consequences; the mostly employed adaptation measures include cultivation on wetlands, intercropping, adopting high-yield varieties, planting early maturing crops and smalls-cale irrigation. There was no significant relationship between the respondent’s characteristics and the adoption of measures that ensure improved moisture in root zones. Weather unpredictability and inadequate support from the government are barriers to effective employment of the adaptation measures. It is recommended that weather forecasting be improved and that appropriate policy support including facilitation of crop insurance be put in place.