A Comprehensive Review of Tax Policy Changes and Tax Revenue in Kenya

Abstract

Government revenue is crucial for fostering economic growth, especially in emerging economies where financial autonomy matters. Mobilising this revenue is key to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) focused on productivity and inclusive growth. This study analyses Kenya's tax revenue trends from 2001 to 2021, particularly the impact of tax policy reforms on the tax-to-GDP ratio. The findings reveal a significant increase in Kenya's tax revenue from 182,418 million shillings in 2001 to 1,692,662 million shillings in 2021, reflecting the effectiveness of tax reforms. It notes a shift towards direct taxes, which increased both in absolute terms and as a portion of total revenue, indicating improved compliance and administrative efficiency. Key reforms, such as the Tax Modernization Programme and the digital iTax system, enhanced revenue collection by improving compliance and tax base widening. While indirect taxes have traditionally dominated, the gap with direct taxes has narrowed, leading to a more balanced revenue structure. The study also highlights challenges, including political disruptions in 2007 and the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, emphasising the need for resilient revenue strategies. Ultimately, the research concludes that continuous tax policy reform and improved administrative efficiency are essential for Kenya's fiscal sustainability and broader economic development goals.