The Multidimensional Tourism Carrying Capacity Model for Zanzibar

Abstract

Zanzibar as a tourist destination nation is experiencing strong tourism growth, with high tourism intensity and with high seasonality is bound to be subject to considerable negative effects related to the amount of tourists visiting their area. Therefore, determining the tourism carrying capacity of Zanzibar is thus vital national policy issue to ensure a balance between achieving optimal tourism development without compromising the delicate environmental, economic and social structure. The paper develops and proposes the Multidimensional Tourism Carrying Capacity Model, (MDTCC) to be used assess and establish the tourism carrying capacity of Zanzibar. The paper considers the tourism carrying capacity (TCC), as a national policy target variable and complex function of six interdependent dimensional and subsystems variables, namely, Economy, Ecology or Nature, Social, Culture, Heritage, and Political. In turn, these independent subsystems are defined as complex functions of other endogenous, exogenous factors, parameters, and series of pre-outcomes. The MDTCC is determined according to mathematical rules as there are seven relations; to be determined by the seven endogenous variables as policy target variables. The empirical MDTCC Model is proposed to be used to investigate performances or behaviour of policy target variables given variations of other endogenous, exogenous factors and parameters. The quantitative MDTCC procedures to be adopted in the framework to evaluate each component are based on mathematically valid procedures and techniques associated to the complete ex-ante and ex-post evaluation monitoring processes, through all stages or phases; from the planning stages to reporting of results from the data and policy analysis.