Modeling Coronavirus Spread Rate Utilizing Dimensional Analysis via an Irredundant Set of Fundamental Quantities

Abstract

The phenomenon of spread of a (pathogenic) virus involves many physical variables, and is not amenable to satisfactory analysis via conventional methods. Dimensional Analysis (DA) is singled out as a simple and accessible way that can determine (at least qualitatively) how virus spread is related to seven physical quantities that are thought to influence it. However, classical DA deduces four dimensionless products only, none of which incorporates temperature and humidity, despite the obvious relevance of these two meteorological factors. This paper proposes an alternative version of dimensional analysis using a novel irredundant set of three fundamental quantities only. This new DA version produces five dimensionless products, four of which are essentially a replication of the old ones, while the fifth is a novel product that relates both humidity and temperature to other influencing factors. Our novel DA solution is a significant contribution, since it provides a more realistic model for virus spread rate, and it does not ignore any of the essential influencing factors. Such a model might lead to a better understanding of the determinants of spread for the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that causes the ongoing COVID-19 fatal pandemic.