Trend Analysis of Rainfall in Telangana State (India) Using Advanced Statistical Approaches

Abstract

This study was carried out to analyse the trend analysis of the long-term annual and seasonal rainfall pattern in Telangana state, India. For this study monthly rainfall data of Telangana state from January 1982 to December 2021 was collected from the NASA power website (https://power.Iarc.nasa.gov). The linear regression trend line and the non-parametric tests, such as Mann-Kendall test, Modified-Mann Kendall test and Innovative trend analysis tests, were used to understand the trend present in the rainfall data of Telangana. Wallis and Moore test was used to test the randomness of the rainfall data under consideration. Both increasing and decreasing trend was seen in linear regression trend method for Telangana rainfall data. The significant result was found in the month of May which showed an increasing trend, whereas remaining months showed the non-significant trend in the Modified Mann Kendall test as well as in the Innovative trend analysis. The pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon periods showed a non-significant trend in the rainfall pattern of Telangana state. The annual rainfall of Telangana showed a non-significant trend pattern by Modified Mann-Kendall test. There was a significant increasing trend of rainfall in the month of May and remaining months showed a non-significant trend. Accurate identification of rainfall patterns over the area may help to create the appropriate policy measures in advance to plan the future climate uncertainties.