Activity-determined Steps on the Attenuation of Atmospheric PM2.5 Concentration Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) at the Country Level: Empirical Evidence in Taiwan

Abstract

Finding ways to minimize the atmospheric concentration of PM2.5 is an emergency issue throughout the world. This research has found a method to calculate historical PM2.5 data and to define the PM2.5 environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) pattern in Taiwan. From the analysis of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency’s public emission data, results showed that the continuous decay of PM2.5 is mostly contributed by the energy policy, while several short-term regular stepwise fluctuations in PM2.5 concentrations are caused by natural activity. Our study also proved that the linear decay with stepwise fluctuations also exhibits an EKC pattern. The results herein mean that the continuous decay of PM2.5 is caused by the energy policy, while the regular fluctuation of PM2.5 concentrations is caused by natural activity, like the La Nino phenomena. Based on the viewpoint of this paper, the oil consumption percentage for electricity generation should be first reduced to zero. However, oil-based power plants are an important emergency source of electricity supply. If Taiwan wants to continue the reduction of PM2.5 in the future, then a big capacity electric storage facility should be built as an emergency source of electricity supply. The energy policy in Taiwan at 2025 will be 50% natural gas, 30% coal, and 20% green energy. As oil fuel will reach 0%, PM2.5 will be affected by the energy intensity contributed from coal and natural gas, meaning that PM2.5 will maintain a long-term attenuation trend until 2035.